Sany Heavy Industry (600031) 2019 Annual Report Performance Preview Comment: High Performance Increases on Schedule and Increases Profit Forecast for 2020
Event: The company issued a 2019 performance forecast, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 108.
0 million yuan, an increase of 76 in ten years.
9%, performance forecast hub 113.
0 million yuan, corresponding to an annual growth of 84 in the 2018 performance.
8%; Q4 single-quarter net profit of 16.
40,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.
Opinion: The performance of 2019 will grow as expected, in line with market expectations.
Looking ahead to 2020, we believe that the reduction and update demand are highly deterministic; under the background of increasing economic downward pressure, counter-cyclical adjustment is still the first choice, and increased demand for construction machinery is guaranteed.
In the existing market, leading companies will take advantage of technology, scale, and channels to further increase their market share, increase Sany ‘s 2020 performance, and maintain a “strong recommendation” rating.
Infrastructure enterprises stabilize and merge land to maintain competitiveness, and the demand of the construction machinery industry is guaranteed.
Against the backdrop of increasing economic downward pressure, countercyclical policies have gradually increased.
In 2019, 25,272 million exclusive special debts have been invested, an increase of 41 per year.
6%, driven by the special debt policy, the growth rate of infrastructure investment from January to December 2019 is gradually extended to 3.
33%, an increase of at least 2018.
In addition, real estate investment remains reasonable. On January 12, 2019, real estate development investment gradually increased at a growth rate of 9.
9%, an increase of 0 from 2018.
Under the role of 西安耍耍网 infrastructure to stabilize the land and supplement the interests of maintaining land, the downstream demand of the industry is guaranteed.
The industry boom continued, and the company’s performance was beautiful as scheduled.
With the stability of infrastructure construction, real estate investment growth, and the need for renewal and export demand, the prosperity of the construction machinery industry in 2019 continues, and excavators are gradually sold23.
570,000 units, sales reached a new high, exceeding the increase of 15%.
9%, exceeding market expectations at the beginning of the year; In the first 10 months of 2019, the incremental sales volume of engineering cranes reached 5.
50,000 units, surpassing last year’s high of 5.
20,000 units, the previous growth rate reached 25.
6%; concrete machinery is expected to grow faster than the excavator industry in 2019 due to the post-cycle nature of construction.
Under the background of the continued prosperity of the industry, the company’s core product competitiveness has increased, the city’s share has increased, overlapping statements have continued to be repaired, and the company’s performance is outstanding.
①Excavator: As a leading excavator company, Sany sales in 2019 reached 60749 units, +29 per year.
4%, far exceeding the growth rate of the industry (15.
9%), and gradually expand the market share to 25.
8%, an increase of at least 2018
7pct. Since the launch of H series mining products by Sany, the market share of Zhongda mining has increased more than that of small mining. Due to the higher value of Zhongda mining, we judge that the revenue growth of Sany excavators is higher than the sales growth.The revenue growth rate of the excavator segment was above 30%.
②Concrete machinery: As a post-cycle product, the sales growth rate of concrete machinery has exceeded that of excavators since this year. From the data of the first half of the year, the revenue of the concrete machinery segment was 12.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51%.However, the growth rate of sales revenue has remained at least high, so the revenue growth rate of this sector is expected to be above 40%.
③ Crane: Affected by the start-up sequence and update cycle, the crane relay digging machine continues a high growth trend. From January to November 2019, the automobile crane industry has accumulated a total of 39,114 units, each time +31.
5%, which has exceeded 32,318 starting points in 2018. After the growth rate of the automotive crane industry changed from negative to positive in September, the growth rate accelerated month by month, and the October to November growth rates were 19 respectively.
At 7%, the company’s crane market share is the third. Against the background of the rapid growth of crane relay excavators, it is expected that the growth rate of crane business in 2019 will exceed 30%.
The company’s performance growth is highly deterministic and is expected to improve.
①Company size: According to our calculations, as long as the scale of the excavator industry is less than 7% in 2020, the market share of Trinity will increase by 2 pct. Excavator revenue can achieve positive growth. Cranes and concrete machinery will continue to perform well as post-cycle varietiesWith regard to excavators, the company’s performance growth is highly certain; the company’s supplementary capital expenditure is limited, the expense ratio is down, gross profit margin, and net profit margin enter the upward channel, and net operating cash flow continues to hit a new high.
②Estimated index: The current company’s market value corresponds to 2020 PE of 9.
About 9 times, still at historically acceptable levels.
With the increase of the company’s proportion of overseas revenue, the ability of ironing cycles to increase, combined with the current market risk appetite and the assessment of benchmarking overseas leading companies, the company’s PE is expected to increase to more than 15 times in the future.
Investment suggestion: It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 2019-2021 will be 114.
2 ‰, an increase of 87 in ten years.
37% and 10.
42%; corresponding to EPS 1.
67 and 1.
84 yuan, corresponding to PE 12.
97 times, maintaining the “highly recommended” level.
Risk warning: Infrastructure real estate investment is less than expected, market competition is intensified, and overseas business expansion progress is less than expected.